Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach

Pami Dua and Anirvan Banerji ()

Working Papers from eSocialSciences

Abstract: This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate cycles is discussed. Since economies undergo structural changes over the course of a business cycle, and rapid structural changes are characteristic of developing economies in particular, practical methods for the analysis and prediction of business cycles need to be robust to such shifts. The recent Great Recession also underscores why “this time, it’s different†should not be considered a valid excuse for forecasting failure. [Working Paper No. 202]. URL:[http://www.cdedse.org/].

Keywords: recessions; slowdowns; business cycle; great recession; economic activity; developing economies; growth rate; economic indicators; recoveries; historical accuracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-08
Note: Institutional Papers
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: PREDICTING RECESSIONS AND SLOWDOWNS--A ROBUST APPROACH (2011)
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