Empirical Analysis on the Dynamics of Tourists with a Simple Stochastic Model: Case of Okinawa
Tadashi Ito and
Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
Departing from the conventional theoretical approach, which explains tourism demand by various kinds of determinants, this paper proposes a model in which the dynamics of the number of tourists is explained by probabilistic behaviors. More specifically, the model assumes two different probabilities—one for first-time travelers and the other for frequent travelers. Based on this theoretical framework, the paper empirically examines the dynamics of the number of tourists to Okinawa, Japan. We find that income and transport costs explain the probability of first-time visitors, but that they do not explain for that of repeat visitors. Instead, the congestion index, which reflects the busy lifestyle in large cities, does so. This suggests that tourism policy should differ depending on how well-established the location is as a tourist destination. Given that Okinawa is acknowledged as the foremost resort destination among the Japanese, the priority for the resources allocation of tourism promotion should be on the preservation of the natural environment and the original culture, thereby offering unusual experiences to the visitors.
Pages: 26 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-tur and nep-ure
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eti:dpaper:13058
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by TANIMOTO, Toko ().