Economics at your fingertips  

Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Masayuki Morikawa

Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

Abstract: This study, based on original surveys conducted before and after the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, documents firms’ medium-term outlook and its uncertainty. The results show that, the uncertainty related to the outlooks of firms, measured as a subjective confidence interval of their point forecasts, increased substantially at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Uncertainty over the macroeconomic outlook declined slightly by the end of 2021, but uncertainty over the firms’ sales outlook remained high. Second, uncertainty over the firms’ sales outlook is significantly related to uncertainty over the macroeconomic outlook, even when firm fixed effects are controlled. Third, forecasts regarding the end of the COVID-19 pandemic are highly dispersed. The expectation regarding the duration of the pandemic is correlated with the macroeconomic outlook and its uncertainty, but correlations with firms’ sales outlook and its uncertainty are not observed.

Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2022-08
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by TANIMOTO, Toko ().

Page updated 2023-01-23
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22079