A House for My Family: The impacts of down payment rate on marriage and fertility

Yuting Bai, Jun Hyung Kim, Anqi Li, Shiko Maruyama and Zhe Yang

Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

Abstract: Homeownership and childbearing decisions are closely linked for many couples. As buying a home often requires substantial loan amounts, consumer credit conditions may influence fertility. We examine how down payment rate (DPR) policies affect marriage and fertility, exploiting city-by-year variation in DPRs across China from 2008 to 2020. The results show that, while housing prices show no direct effect, higher DPRs significantly reduce the likelihood of first births, particularly among those who are likely to be credit-constrained. We find no effect on first marriage. These findings highlight how housing market policies can shape demographic behavior, especially in the context of high housing prices.

Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2025-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eti:dpaper:25056

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