Driving Change: RRF Support for the EU’s Automotive Transition

Anne Michels, Valeria Ferreira, Constanza Caprini, Maximilian Studtrucker, Luis Pedauga, José Manuel Rueda Cantuche and Gaspard Legrand

No 259, European Economy - Discussion Papers from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of the economic impacts of RRF measures supporting the green and digital transition of the automotive sector, alongside their potential contribution to greenhouse gas emission reductions. First, drawing on a sectoral database developed by the European Commission, the paper identifies EUR 24.9 billion in automotive-related investments supporting purchases of around 2 million zero- and low-emission vehicles, the deployment of about 1 million charging stations, and strategic and innovative projects across the entire automotive value chain. Second, using simulations based on the European Commission’s FIDELIO model, the paper assesses the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of automotive-related RRF investments. Their cumulative economic impact within the EU is estimated to reach EUR 46.8 billion by 2030, almost twice the dedicated RRF budget. Cross-border spillovers account for a substantial share of the impacts, particularly in Member States closely integrated into European automotive production networks. Germany, Italy, Spain and France are the largest beneficiaries in absolute terms. Benefits extend across the whole automotive value chain and are particularly pronounced in manufacturing. Third, complementary analysis of firm-level data from the three Member States with the largest numbers of RRF supported zero- and low-emission vehicles shows that EU-headquartered brands account by far for the largest share of supported purchases. Finally, potential annual greenhouse gas emission reductions from RRF supported zero-emission cars and buses are estimated at approximately 3,225 kilotonnes of CO₂ equivalent, broadly comparable to the annual emissions of 400,000 EU residents in 2021.

JEL-codes: C82 E61 F15 F17 F41 F42 F62 H23 L62 O33 O38 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2026-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:dispap:259

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