An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area

Peter Grasmann and Filip Keereman

No 154, European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: This paper discusses an approach to estimate euro area GDP quarterly growth over two quarters ahead. The estimates are derived from separate single equations for each quarter to be forecast using OLS including a moving error term. The explanatory variables describe real economic activity or its assessment in opinion surveys, and financial variables, both of the euro area and the US. The euro area opinion survey variables are the present business situation in the retail sector and the construction confidence indicator, while the US National Association of Purchasing Managers index of the manufacturing industry reflects the importance of international economic links. There are two financial variables. First, the relative yield spread between the euro area and the US. Second, the real effective exchange rate is an indication of the competitive position of euro area exporters

Keywords: euro; quaterly forecast; GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2001-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:ecopap:0154

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