Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts

Lars Jonung () and Martin Larch

No 210, European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: The evidence from several euro-area countries demonstrates the existence of a forecast bias in the budgetary process, which negatively affects fiscal performance. To remedy this bias, we suggest that forecasting should be assigned to an authority independent from the ministry of finance and the government, with the task of producing unbiased projections of growth and other variables crucial for the budgetary process.

Keywords: independent forecasts; taxation; fiscal policy; forecast bias; forecasts; Jonung; Larch (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2004-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (50)

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Journal Article: Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts (2006)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:ecopap:0210

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