EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?

Robert Kollmann (), Marco Ratto (), Werner Roeger, Jan in 't Veld and Lukas Vogel ()

No 516, European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission

Abstract: We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany’s current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labour market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks. The convergence of REA interest rates to German rates due to the creation of the Euro only had a modest effect on the German current account and on German real activity. The key shocks that drove the rise in the German current account tended to worsen the REA trade balance, but had a weak effect on REA real activity. Our analysis suggests these driving factors are likely to be slowly eroded, leading to a very gradual reduction of the German current account surplus. An expansion in German government consumption and investment would raise German GDP and reduce the current account surplus, but the effects on the surplus are likely to be weak.

JEL-codes: E3 F21 F3 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 96 pages
Date: 2014-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-mac and nep-opm
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/ ... r/2014/ecp516_en.htm (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States? (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states? (2015)
Working Paper: What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States? (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: What Drives the German Current Account ?And How Does It Affect Other EU Member States ? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states? (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: What drives the German current account? and how does it affect other EU member states? (2014) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:euf:ecopap:0516

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 from Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ECFIN INFO ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-23
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0516