Economic Voting in Britain, 1857-1914

Robert Hodgson and John Maloney
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Robert Hodgson: Department of Economics, University of Exeter
John Maloney: Department of Economics, University of Exeter

No 1009, Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics

Abstract: Despite limited government control over the pre-1914 economy, opposition politicians were enthusiastic in blaming bad economic news on the incumbent. In a study of 458 by-elections between 1857 and 1914, we find that voters typically gave new governments a 'honeymoon' but thereafter held them responsible for high unemployment and high prices. Each 1% rise in the price level, on average, brought about a 0.21% swing against the government of the day, while each one-point rise in the percentage unemployed had double this effect. Attributing shorter- or longer-term memories to voters, as they used the past to determine what constituted unacceptable price and unemployment levels, makes little difference to this result. We also look at grievance asymmetry - the idea that voters give governments more blame for bad outcomes than they give credit for good ones - and find some evidence in its favour.

Keywords: voting; inflation unemplyment; Britian; elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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