EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Do in-group biases lead to overconfidence in performance? Experimental evidence

Lia Flores and Miguel Fonseca ()
Additional contact information
Lia Flores: School of Economics and Management, University of Porto

No 2103, Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics

Abstract: Psychologists have long identified the tendency of humans to overestimate their skill relative to their peers (overplacement). We investigate whether this phenomenon is exacerbated by group affiliation: social identity theory predicts people evaluate in-group members more positively than out-group members, and we hypothesized that this differential treatment may result in greater overplacement when interacting with an out-group member. We tested this hypothesis with 301 US voters affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic party in the run-up to the 2020 Presidential election, a time when political identities were salient and highly polarized. We found there is a higher tendency for overplacement when faced with an out-group opponent than with an in-group opponent. Decomposition analysis suggests this difference is due to underestimating the opponent, as opposed to overestimating one's own performance to a higher degree. Moreover, any tendency to incur in overplacement is mitigated when faced with an opponent with the same political-identity relative to one with a neutral one. While group affiliation biases initial priors, such effect is unchanged when participants are asked to update their beliefs.

Keywords: overconfidence; belief updating; motivated beliefs; overplacement; social identity; political affiliation; competition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C9 D18 D91 Z1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-08-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-cdm, nep-exp, nep-isf, nep-pol and nep-soc
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://people.exeter.ac.uk/RePEc/dpapers/DP2103.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:exe:wpaper:2103

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sebastian Kripfganz ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-14
Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:2103