 Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in a Model with Bayesian LearningGeorge Bulkley (), Richard Harris and Paul Weller Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics Abstract: Evidence that the term structure of interest rates does not satisfy the expectations hypothesis has been reported in a number of papers. However the nature and degree of this rejection is very sensitive to the exact specification of the tests. In this paper, we identify a source of small sample bias that is consistent with this empirical finding. The direction of the bias which we uncover implies that the expections hypothesis is more likely to be true than asymptotic test statistics would suggest. In financial markets, agents often receive information about the future in a form that cannot be explicityly incorporated in an econometric model. We formalise this idea by assuming that agenst supplement forecasts of the short yield obtained from the econometric model with noisy signals of the error term of the model. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that the bias is much more pronounced in the specification which has the more decisive rejection of the expectations hypothesis. Keywords: Term Structure of Interest Rates; Small Sample Bias; Rational Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:exe:wpaper:9706 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Discussion Papers from University of Exeter, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.