How sensitive are optimal fully renewable power systems to technology cost uncertainty?

Behrang Shirizadeh, Quentin Perrier () and Philippe Quirion

No 2019.04, Policy Papers from FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists

Abstract: Many studies have demonstrated the feasibility of fully renewable power systems in various countries and regions. Yet the future costs of key technologies are highly uncertain and little is known about the robustness of a renewable power system to these uncertainties. We build 315 long-term cost scenarios on the basis of recent prospective studies, varying the costs of key technologies. We model the optimal renewable power system for France over 18 meteorological years, simultaneously optimizing investment and dispatch. Our results show that the optimal energy mix is highly sensitive to cost assumptions: the installed capacity in PV, onshore wind and power-to-gas varies by a factor of 5, batteries and offshore wind even more. Nevertheless, we have a robust result showing that the cost of a 100% renewable power system will not be higher than today. Finally, we show that the cost of not installing the absolutely ‘optimal’ mix is limited. Contrary to current estimates of increasing integration costs, this indicates that renewable technologies will become by and large substitutable.

Keywords: Power system modelling; Variable renewables; Electricity storage; Robust decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2019-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-reg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://faere.fr/pub/PolicyPapers/Shirizadeh_Perrier_Quirion_FAERE_PP2019_04.pdf First version, 2019 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: How Sensitive are Optimal Fully Renewable Power Systems to Technology Cost Uncertainty? (2022)
Journal Article: How Sensitive are Optimal Fully Renewable Power Systems to Technology Cost Uncertainty? (2022)
Working Paper: How Sensitive are Optimal Fully Renewable Power Systems to Technology Cost Uncertainty? (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fae:ppaper:2019.04

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Policy Papers from FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dorothée Charlier ().