EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of German macroeconomic data announcements on the Czech financial market

Michala Moravcova ()

No 2015/21, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of German macroeconomic news announcements on the Czech financial market – as proxied by EUR/CZK exchange rate returns – over three sub-periods: the financial crisis period (2008–2009), the post-crisis period (2010–11/2013) and the currency intervention period (11/2013-2014). Both symmetric and asymmetric models from the class of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are applied. Macroeconomic shocks (GDP, ZEW, IFO, factory orders, industrial production, Purchasing manager’s indexes (PMI) from service and production sectors) are constructed as deviations form expected values. The results suggest that announcement of German GDP and IFO index calm the exchange rate volatility during the 7-year total examined time period. Splitting the time series into 3 individual sub-periods the results suggest that announcements of GDP, factory orders decrease and announcements of industrial production, IFO index increase the conditional volatility during financial crises. Furthermore, announcements of GDP and ZEW index calm the exchange rate’s conditional volatility during the post-crises period. Finally, announcements of GDP data and PMI index form production sector increase conditional variance during the central bank’s currency interventions. Moreover, announcement of higher IFO index depreciates the CZK value during the post-crisis period.

Keywords: exchange rate volatility; heteroscedasticity; GARCH; EGARCH; macroeconomic news (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2015-08, Revised 2015-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ger, nep-mac and nep-tra
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5335/lang/cs (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_21

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Natalie Svarcova ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-16
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2015_21