Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries

Evžen Kočenda and Karen Poghosyan

No 2020/5, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we generate ex-post out-of-sample nowcasts and forecasts based on hard and soft indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because, although that variability in their GDP growth data is larger than that of the old EU economies, the economic significance of nowcasting is on average somewhat larger.

Keywords: Bayesian VAR; dynamic and static principal components; European OECD countries; factor augmented VAR; nowcasting; real GDP growth; short-term forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C38 C52 C53 E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2020-02, Revised 2020-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/en/veda-vyzkum/working-papers/6217 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries (2020)
Working Paper: Nowcasting real GDP growth with business tendency surveys data: A cross country analysis (2018)
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