Meta-analysis: Fiscal Multiplier

Michal Hlaváček and Ilgar Ismayilov
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Ilgar Ismayilov: Charles University, Prague

No 2022/07, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: Interest in fiscal policy has been dynamically improved in the last two decades; the number of research conducted on this topic has significantly increased in recent years. One of the key areas in fiscal policy investigations is the size of the fiscal multiplier, and most studies find contradictory results. In the current study, the unique dataset of 132 studies and more than 3200 observations were used to conduct a meta-analysis on multiplier effects, and several linear and non-linear models were involved in implementing this exercise. Additionally, Bayesian Model Averaging was first implemented to investigate heterogeneity effects in the meta-analysis of the fiscal multiplier. The results show that the fiscal multiplier is significantly less than one in the range of 0.75 - 0.82. Moreover, the main contribution of the current study to the fiscal policy literature is disentangling the existence of selection publication bias in the literature.

Keywords: fiscal multiplier; meta-analysis; publication bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2022-05, Revised 2022-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2022_07

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