What Really Drives Financial Inclusion? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of 3,817 Estimates

Samuel Eshun and Evžen Kočenda

No 2025/14, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: We present a comprehensive meta-analysis of the determinants of financial inclusion, synthesizing 3,817 estimates from 102 studies published between 2013 and 2024. To reconcile divergent findings, we convert all results to a common unbiased metric-the partial correlation coefficient corrected via the UWLS+3 approach-and apply recent advances in meta-analysis methodology. The evidence shows that while reported effects are small and positive, they are systematically inflated by publication bias; once corrected, the underlying impact is more modest but remains economically meaningful. Among determinants, income-related factors play only a minor role, whereas technology, infrastructure, and persistence over time have far greater influence. Regional variation is substantial: Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA benefit more consistently from inclusion drivers than Europe or Asia. The results temper overly optimistic interpretations of individual studies and provide robust benchmarks for policymakers seeking to design effective and realistic strategies for advancing inclusive finance worldwide.

Keywords: Financial inclusion; banks; meta-analysis; model uncertainty; publication bias; Bayesian model averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 G21 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2025-08, Revised 2025-08
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_14

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