Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets

Andrea Bastianin, Chiara Casoli, Evžen Kočenda and Xiao Li
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Andrea Bastianin: Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, Italy & Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy
Chiara Casoli: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy & InsIDE Lab, Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy
Xiao Li: Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Italy

No 2026/02, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: The global energy transition is reshaping commodity demand, yet its implications for commodity risk transmission remain unclear. We analyze connectedness among Energy Transition Metals (ETMs) – a subset of metals that are key inputs in clean energy technologies – energy commodities, and industrial metals using a Quantile Factor VAR framework. We document strong state dependence: spillovers are substantially larger in the tails of the return distribution than at the median. While crude oil remains influential, its dominance weakens post-Covid as ETMs, particularly base ETMs, gain centrality. A complementary event-study shows ETM-related policy announcements amplify spillovers in extreme regimes, indicating structural reconfiguration and systemic implications.

Keywords: Raw materials; Energy transition; Quantile Connectedness; Spillover e!ects; Commodity Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C58 Q02 Q41 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2026-04, Revised 2026-04
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Working Paper: Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets (2026)
Working Paper: Extreme Connectedness among Energy Transition Metals and Commodity Markets (2026)
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