Proyecciones de demanda de educación en España

Andrés M. Alonso Fernández (), Daniel Peña and Julio Rodríguez Puerta ()
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Andrés M. Alonso Fernández: UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID
Julio Rodríguez Puerta: UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID

No 201081, Working Papers from Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation

Abstract: This working paper focuses on demand projectionsfor Spain s official educational stages in the 2005-2050 period. Between now and 2015, the number of students in non university education will increaseas a result of immigration, while the number of university matriculations will go on shrinking year afteryear. What happens next largely depends on the hypotheses ventured for immigration. Assuming an immigration rate of no more than 20% of the population, enrolments in non university education centres will peak in 2015 for early childhood education, in 2020 for the primary level and 2025 for the secondary level. Our forecasts suggest that by 2025, midpoint in the time frame considered, enrolments will be up by between 11% and 24% in early childhood education (ages 3 to 5), between 35% and 46% inprimary education (ages 6 to 13) and between 5% and 11% in secondary education (ages 14 to 18). At the university level, a wave pattern appears after2020 which reaches its crest between 2030 and 2035, with the entry of immigrants children born in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. Finally, forecasts for 2050 put the number of enrolled students above the 2015-2020 average in the hypotheses of high and medium immigration, and somewhat below in the event of low immigration.

Keywords: Education; demographics; population forecasts; time series; dynamic factor models; bootstrap. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 74
Date: 2007-06
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