Asymmetric macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area

Pierre Aldama and Jerome Creel

No 2020-09, Documents de Travail de l'OFCE from Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence of asymmetric fiscal policy along the business cycle, using a real-time panel data on 19 OECD countries. We estimate various specifications of fiscal policy rules, in which ex ante fiscal policy has two major objectives: macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation. First, we find that a symmetric fiscal policy rule may not be an accurate representation of real-time fiscal policy. We find evidence in favor of asymmetric fiscal policy, in particular regarding the response to output gap. Second, fiscal policy appears to be generally procyclical in downturns and a-cyclical in upturns, typically in the Euro Area and during the crisis. Third, we do not find significant evidence of a procyclical fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area, although surplus-debt feedback coefficients are generally larger in downturns. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of business cycle and to country exclusion.

Keywords: Fiscal policy rules; real-time data; asymmetric stabilization; fiscal consolidation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E61 E62 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area (2020)
Working Paper: Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fce:doctra:2009

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