Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets

Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Julián Andrada-Félix

No 2002-05, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the relevance of non-linear predictors of high-frequency data in foreign exchange markets. To that end, we apply nearest-neighbour (NN) predictors, inspired by the literature on forecasting in non-linear dynamical systems, to exchange-rate series. The forecasting performance of univariate and multivariate versions of such NN predictors is first evaluated from the statistical point of view, using a battery of statistical tests. Secondly, we assess if NN predictors are capable of producing valuable economic signals in foreign exchange markets. The results show the potential usefulness of NN predictors not only as a helpful tool when forecast daily exchange data but also as a technical trading rules.

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