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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

Markus Brückner () and Antonio Ciccone

No 2009-38, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.

Date: 2009-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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Related works:
Journal Article: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2011)
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Rain and the democratic window of opportunity (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity (2008) Downloads
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