From digital search to deed: Forecasting UK housing purchases in Spain using Google Trends across the Brexit disruption

Jorge Onrubia, Fernando Pinto and María del Carmen Rodado Ruíz

No 2025-08, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: This paper examines the predictive relationship between online search behavior and international housing demand, focusing on UK citizens purchasing property in Spain from 2014 to 2024. Using Google Trends data for the search term "Spain villas" alongside official transaction records, we estimate autoregressive(AR), argumented(ARX), and interaction models to asses whether digital intent anticipates real estate purchases.Results show that search intensity significantly enhances model performance before the 2016 Brexit referendum

Date: 2025-07
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