Determining factors and future scenarios for the Spanish public debt

Manuel Díaz, Carmen Marín and Diego Martínez

No eee2023-17, Studies on the Spanish Economy from FEDEA

Abstract: The Spanish public debt to GDP ratio has reached its highest level in 2020. In this paper, we study the evolution of the factors explaining the recent changes in this debt ratio from 2015 to 2021. Moreover, we estimate the fiscal consolidation efforts needed to achieve a determined level of public debt to GDP ratio. Likewise, a macroeconomic model is calibrated to simulate the future evolution of debt under different consolidation strategies. The simulations are obtained at country and regional levels. Our main conclusion indicates that it will be necessary a significant fiscal consolidation effort to address the deleveraging process that is expected to be required by the reform of the European fiscal rules.

Date: 2023-05
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