NDC Benchmarking of Spanish Pensions: Disability, Survivor Reversibility and Hidden Redistribution

Ahmed Ación López and Carlos Vidal-Meliá

No eee2026-29, Studies on the Spanish Economy from FEDEA

Abstract: We develop an actuarially grounded NDC counterfactual to benchmark Spain’s pay-asyou- go defined-benefit pension system. Using MCVL administrative microdata for 2015– 2023, we reconstruct individual notional capital from contribution histories and compare it with the actuarial cost of DB entitlements for retirement, disability and survivorcontingent reversibility. Italy’s NDC experience serves as an institutional reference highlighting the need for explicit treatment of non-old-age contingencies. DB costs generally exceed NDC capital, revealing implicit transfers not captured in retirement-only assessments. Disability generates the largest deviations, while survivor reversibility adds contingent liabilities. Results support distinguishing contribution-based entitlements, contingent liabilities and redistributive effects.

Date: 2026-09
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