Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic Indicators of Presidential Approval Ratings in Brazil

Alex Ferreira and Sergio Sakurai ()

No 09_09, Working Papers from Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto

Abstract: We test the degree to which presidential approval ratings are related to a series of eco- nomic indicators, controlling for the political scenario in Brazil. Results, from 1999M9 until 2009M2, show that unemployment is the main variable that a®ects the ratings. There is also evidence that President Luis In¶acio Lula da Silva has a higher approval rate (approximately 7%) than President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, keeping constant a reasonable number of important domestic and foreign indicators. Our results support the conclusion that the good state of the economy (given no political turmoil) is the main factor that explains and predicts Lula's high popularity.

Keywords: approval rating; president; economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E02 H11 H77 H83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Journal Article: Personal charisma or the economy?: Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fea:wpaper:09_09

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