Climate Uncertainty and the Necessity to Transform Global Energy Supply

Bob van der Zwaan (bob.vanderzwaan@tno.nl) and Reyer Gerlagh

No 2004.95, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainties in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform - this century - our global infrastructure of energy supply, given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO2 emission reduction efforts, both in terms of how much and when, of our uncertain knowledge today of the climate sensitivity to a doubling in them atmospheric CO2 concentration. Also the roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings, and their evolutions over time, are researched, as well as their dependence on some of our characteristic modelling features. We use a top-down model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource.

Keywords: Global warming; CO2 emissions; Climate sensitivity; Fossil to non-fossil transition; Carbon-free power; Energy savings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q25 Q42 Q43 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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