Impact of Revised CO2 Growth Projections for China on Global Stabilization Goals

Geoffrey J. Blanford, Richard G. Richels and Thomas Rutherford ()
Additional contact information
Geoffrey J. Blanford: Electric Power Research Institute
Richard G. Richels: Electric Power Research Institute

No 2008.68, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: Recent growth in carbon dioxide emissions from China’s energy sector has exceeded expectations. In a major US government study of future emissions released in 2007 (1), participating models appear to have substantially underestimated the near-term rate of increase in China’s emissions. We present a recalibration of one of those models to be consistent with both current observations and historical development patterns. The implications of the new specification for the feasibility of commonly discussed stabilization targets, particularly when considering incomplete global participation, are profound. Unless China’s emissions begin to depart soon from their (newly projected) business-as-usual path, stringent stabilization goals may be unattainable. The current round of global policy negotiations must engage China and other developing countries, not to the exclusion of emissions reductions in the developed world and possibly with the help of significant financial incentives, if such goals are to be achieved. It is in all nations’ interests to work cooperatively to limit our interference with the global climate.

Keywords: Energy-Economy Modeling; China; Economic Growth Rates; Energy Intensity; International Climate Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H23 O13 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/w ... oads/NDL2008-068.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2008.68

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alberto Prina Cerai ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).