On the Economic Determinants of Oil Production. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for Small Exporting Countries

Alessandro Cologni and Matteo Manera ()
Additional contact information
Alessandro Cologni: Edison Trading, Edison S.p.A

No 2011.54, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: In this paper, decisions regarding production in oil exporting countries are studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical investigation. Under the assumptions of exogenous oil prices and world oil demand, we are able to describe the relationship between oil production levels and changes in the conditions in world oil markets. Intertemporal production decisions by a representative oil producer are modelled by means of a partial equilibrium model. In this theoretical model, oil producers are subject to exogenous shocks in world oil demand and prices. Oil companies can change output levels only by incurring a fixed cost. Results from the simulation of this model show a strong relationship between oil production and changes in world oil consumption. On the contrary, the effects of changes in real oil prices on oil production decisions seem to be much lower. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model are then empirically investigated using time-series econometric techniques. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that several oil producing countries are characterized by different responses to changes in world oil demand and in real oil prices. For many countries production rapidly adjusts to changes in consumption whereas responses of oil production to innovations in real oil prices are found to be not statistically significant. In addition, when non-linearities in the relationship between exogenous variables and output levels are allowed for, evidence of asymmetric effects of output levels to shocks in demand levels and oil prices is found.

Keywords: Oil Production; Exogenous Shocks; Theoretical Modelling; Time Series Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 D21 D22 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/w ... oads/NDL2011-054.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: On the Economic Determinants of Oil Production. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for Small Exporting Countries (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.54

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alberto Prina Cerai ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).