Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Heleen van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Jessica Jewell, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Massimo Tavoni (), Michel den Elzen, Aayushi Awasthy, Katherine Calvin, Pantelis Capros, Leon Clarke, Michel Colombier, Teng Fei, Amit Garg, Fernanda Guedes, Mariana Imperio, Mikiko Kainuma, Jiang Kejun, Alexandre C. Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Alban Kitous, Leonidas Paroussos, Andre Lucena, Toshihiko Masui, Larissa Nogueira, Roberta Pierfederici, Bert Saveyn, Roberto Schaeffer, Fu Sha, Bianka Shoai, P.R. Shukla, Thomas Spencer, Alexandre Szklo and Henri Waisman
Additional contact information
Heleen van Soest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands
Lara Aleluia Reis: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Detlef van Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands
Christoph Bertram: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany
Jessica Jewell: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Michel den Elzen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands
Aayushi Awasthy: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India
Katherine Calvin: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), United States
Leon Clarke: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), United States
Michel Colombier: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France
Teng Fei: Tsinghua University (TU), China
Amit Garg: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India
Fernanda Guedes: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Mariana Imperio: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Mikiko Kainuma: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
Jiang Kejun: Energy Research Institute of NDRC (ERI), China
Alexandre C. Köberle: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Peter Kolp: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Andre Lucena: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Toshihiko Masui: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
Larissa Nogueira: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Roberta Pierfederici: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France
Roberto Schaeffer: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Fu Sha: Renmin University and National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, China
Bianka Shoai: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Japan
P.R. Shukla: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India
Thomas Spencer: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France
Alexandre Szklo: The Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Brazil
Henri Waisman: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), France

No 2015.110, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Keywords: Climate policy; Mitigation; Global and national policy comparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Related works:
Working Paper: Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.110

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