The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

Elena Verdolini, Laura Diaz Anadón, Erin Baker, Valentina Bosetti and Lara Aleluia Reis
Additional contact information
Laura Diaz Anadón: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and University College London
Erin Baker: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Lara Aleluia Reis: CMCC and FEEM

No 2016.47, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives: (1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making; (2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and (3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches. We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.

Keywords: Energy Technologies; R&D Investments; Expert Elicitations; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q5 Q55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-ino
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations (2018)
Working Paper: The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2016.47

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