Dams and Rural Conflict: Evidence from Brazil’s Hydropower Expansion

Andrea Bastianin, Luca Rossini and Alessandra Testa
Additional contact information
Andrea Bastianin: University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Luca Rossini: University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Alessandra Testa: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

No 2026.02, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified shock using a two-step approach based on country-level models for major copper-importing and exporting economies. We find that copper supply shocks raise producer prices and depress industrial activity in importing economies, while exporters benefit from higher world prices through improved terms of trade. Importer-exporter status alone is insufficient to characterize exposure: heterogeneity in responses reflects differences in manufacturing copper intensity and buffering capacity through secondary copper production.

Keywords: Copper; Supply shocks; Structural VAR; Narrative identification; Macroeconomic effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E00 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-min
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/w ... loads/NDL2026-02.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.02

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alberto Prina Cerai ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).