Hysteresis e o comércio exterior de produtos industrializados brasileiros

Sergio Kannebley, Diogo Mendonça () and Maíra Camargo Scarpelli

No 253, Textos para discussão from FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil)

Abstract: This article investigates the hypothesis of hysteresis for the Brazilian manufactured exports and imports in recent years. For that it was used an empirical measure of strong hysteresis (macroeconomic) developed by Piscitelli et al. (2000) and tested its significance in sectoral supply and demand equations for exports and in sectoral equations for import demand. The results shows that Brazilian manufactured exports are strongly determined by international demand, being the empirical measure of real exchange rate expressed by the ratio between international prices and export prices nationals the relevant measure to explain the export performance. With respect to the hysteresis hypothesis, it was rejected for the aggregate of manufactures exports, but accepted in some industrial sectors. For imports this hypothesis was accepted for aggregate of manufactured imports and for ten industrial sectors.

Date: 2010-06-29
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