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On the robustness of the principal volatility components

Carlos César Trucíos Maza, Luiz Hotta and Pedro Valls Pereira ()

No 474, Textos para discussão from FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil)

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the recent principal volatility components analysis procedure. The procedure overcomes several diculties in modelling and forecasting the conditional covariance matrix in large dimensions arising from the curse of dimensionality. We show that outliers have a devastating e↵ect on the construction of the principal volatility components and on the forecast of the conditional covariance matrix and consequently in economic and financial applications based on this forecast. We propose a robust procedure and analyse its finite sample properties by means of Monte Carlo experiments and also illustrate it using empirical data. The robust procedure outperforms the classical method in simulated and empirical data.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
Date: 2018-03
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