Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises

Alexander Chudik and Enrique Martínez García ()

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.

Keywords: Federal Reserve; Consumer Price Index (CPI); Blue Chip; inflation; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-21
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:d00001:103298

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