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Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle

Brent Meyer () and Guhan Venkatu

No 1217, Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed mean measure that dominates the median CPI. Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed-means using a well-known equality of prediction test. We fi nd that there is a large swath of trimmed-means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, while the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always includes the median CPI—an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise that highlights the advantage of the median CPI relative to other standard inflation measures.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Consumer price indexes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2012, Revised 2014-02-01
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Working Paper: Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle (2014) Downloads
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