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Determinants of Expected Returns at Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans

Raj Aggarwal () and John Goodell

No 1508, Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: Estimated expected returns are important for pension plans, as they influence many plan characteristics including required asset levels, annual contributions, and the extent of plan under- or overfunding. Yet, there seems to be little prior literature on the factors influencing these estimated future returns. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper presents the results of a panel analysis of data on the determinants of such returns used by US public defined-benefit (DB) pension plans for the period 2001–2011. As expected, we find that real return estimates by DB public pension funds are positively related to fund size, fund age, international asset diversification, state income, and corruption levels. However, more interestingly and importantly, we document that real return estimates by public US DB pension funds are positively related to cultural measures of individualism and masculinity, and negatively related to uncertainty avoidance. These results should be of much interest not only to scholars and pension benefi ciaries, but also to fund managers, other capital market participants, and policymakers.

Keywords: public pensions; defined benefit pensions; estimated returns; public policy; pension underfunding; finance and culture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H3 H4 H6 I00 J3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-lma
Date: 2015-05-21
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