The sources and nature of long-term memory in the business cycle

Joseph Haubrich and Andrew Lo (alo-admin@mit.edu)

No 9116, Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: This paper examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. We develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. We then derive the relation between properties of fractionally integrated macroeconomic time series and those of microeconomic data and discuss how fiscal policy may alter the stochastic behavior of the former. To implement these results empirically, we employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test, which is robust to short-term dependence, is applied to quarterly and annual real GNP to determine the sources and nature of long-term dependence in the business cycle..

Keywords: Business cycles; time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Sources and Nature of Long-term Memory in the Business Cycle (1989)
Working Paper: The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle
Working Paper: The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle
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