Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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2522: Local Labor Markets and Selection into the Teaching Profession

Christa Deneault

2521: Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance

Enrique Martínez García and Efthymios Pavlidis

2520: What Drives Cyber Losses at U.S. Banks? Potential Statistical Markers

Seth Dunbar, Kelly Klemme, Anthony Murphy, Joseph I. Suek and Michael Tindall

2519: The Social Returns to Public R&D

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2518: An Information-Based Theory of Monopsony Power

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

2517: Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

Haoyang Liu, W. Ben McCartney, Rodney Ramcharan, Calvin Zhang and Xiaohan Zhang

2516: The Conventional Impulse Response Prior in VAR Models with Sign Restrictions

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2515: Asset Manager Commonality and Portfolio Similarity

Ali Ozdagli and Dylan Ryfe

2514: Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms and Trickle-Up Economics

Laura Jackson Young, Christopher Otrok, Michael Owyang and Nora Traum

2513: Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt

Michael Plante, Alexander Richter and Sarah Zubairy

2512: Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers

Jongrim Ha, Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Eswar Prasad

2511: Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge

Roberto Duncan, Enrique Martínez García and Luke Miller

2510: Last Resort Insurance: Wildfires and the Regulation of a Crashing Market

Reid Taylor, Madeline Turland and Joakim A. Weill

2509: The Effects of Competition in the Retail Gasoline Industry

Erich Muehlegger and Reid Taylor

2508: Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics

Pablo Cuba-Borda, Albert Queraltó, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles and Mikaël Scaramucci

2507: Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions

Lutz Kilian

2506: Financial Technology and the 1990s Housing Boom

Stephanie Johnson and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2505: Climate Risk, Insurance Premiums and the Effects on Mortgage and Credit Outcomes

Shan Ge, Stephanie Johnson and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2504: The Impact of Labels on Real Asset Valuations

Yuliya Demyanyk, Luis López and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2503: Up in Smoke: The Impact of Wildfire Pollution on Healthcare Municipal Finance

Luis López, Dermot Murphy, Nitzan Tzur-Ilan and Sean Wilkoff

2502: Air Pollution and Rent Prices: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke Plumes

Luis López and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2501: Dynamics of Market Power in Monetary Economies

Jyotsana Kala, Lucie Lebeau and Lu Wang

2419: An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

Aaron Flaaen, Fariha Kamal, Eunhee Lee and Kei-Mu Yi

2418: Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective

Gaaitzen de Vries, Hagen Kruse, Emmanuel Mensah, Yabo Vidogbena and Kei-Mu Yi

2417: Gender Gaps in the Federal Reserve System

Deepa Datta and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2416: Real Exchange Rates and the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Andrei Zlate

2415: The Problem of Quality Change in Historical Price Statistics: An Illustrative Example Using Baedeker Travel Guides

Jarod Coulter, Braden Strackman and Mark Wynne

2414: Nonparametric Local Projections

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2413: Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement

Pia Orrenius, Chloe N. Smith and Madeline Zavodny

2412: Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg

Isabel Gödl-Hanisch, Ronald Mau and Jonathan Rawls

2411: Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?

Tucker Smith

2410: What Imports to Import Prices?

Enrique Martínez García and Braden Strackman

2409: The Macroeconomics of Labor, Credit and Financial Market Imperfections

Miroslav Gabrovski, Ioannis Kospentaris and Lucie Lebeau

2408: What Fuels the Volatility of Electricity Prices?

Jeremy Lin, Alessio Saretto and Anastasia Shcherbakova

2407: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

2406: Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S

Anton Cheremukhin, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria and Antonella Tutino

2405: Do Bill Shocks Induce Energy Efficiency Investments?

Corey Lang, Kevin Nakolan, David Rapson and Reid Taylor

2404: When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

2403: Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2402: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Jesus Cañas, Aparna Jayashankar, Emily Kerr and Diego Morales-Burnett

2401: The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices

Lutz Kilian, David Rapson and Burkhard Schipper

2316: A Narrative Analysis of Federal Appropriations for Research and Development

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2315: Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and Josh Younger

2314: Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market

Michael Plante

2313: Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men

Adam Blandin, John Jones and Fang Yang

2312: Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2311: High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli

2310: How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises

Lutz Kilian

2309: Global Transportation Decarbonization

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

2308: Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy

Chiara Scotti