Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure

Glenn Rudebusch

No 95-02, Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: The amount of information in the yield curve for forecasting future changes in short rates varies with the maturity of the rates involved. Indeed, spreads between certain long and short rates appear unrelated to future changes in the short rate--contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper estimates a daily model of Federal Reserve interest rate targeting behavior, which, accompanied by the maintained hypothesis of rational expectations, explains the varying predictive ability of the yield curve and elucidates the link between Fed policy and the term structure.

Keywords: Rational expectations (Economic theory); Monetary policy - United States; Interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (April 1995, v. 35 no. 2, p. 245-274)

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