Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations
Jang-Ting Guo () and
Kevin Lansing ()
No 99-08, Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
We examine the quantitative implications of government fiscal policy in a discrete-time one-sector growth model with a productive externality that generates social increasing returns to scale. Starting from a laissez-faire economy that exhibits an indeterminate steady state (a sink), we show that the introduction of a constant capital tax or subsidy can lead to various forms of endogenous fluctuations, including stable 2-, 4-, 8-, and 10- cycles, quasi-periodic orbits, and chaos. In contrast, a constant labor tax or subsidy has no effect on the qualitative nature of the model's dynamics. We also show that the use of local steady-state analysis to detect the presence of multiple equilibria in this class of models can be misleading. For a plausible range of capital tax rates, the log-linearized dynamical system exhibits saddle-point stability (suggesting a unique equilibrium) while the true nonlinear model exhibits global indeterminancy. Finally, we explore the use of a state-contingent capital subsidy/tax scheme for stabilization purposes. We show that a local control policy designed using the log-linearized model can rule out sunspot equilibria near the steady state but may not prevent fluctuations arising from global indeterminacy. We proceed to use the nonlinear model to design a policy that can stabilize the economy against all forms of endogenous fluctuations and select a globally unique equilibrium.
Keywords: Fiscal policy; Business cycles; Chaotic behavior in systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-pbe and nep-pub
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Journal Article: FISCAL POLICY, INCREASING RETURNS, AND ENDOGENOUS FLUCTUATIONS (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfap:99-08
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().