Are crisis-induced devaluations contractionary?

Ramkishen Rajan and Chung-Hua Shen

No 2002-06, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: Why are some currency crises followed by economic contractions while others are not? This paper is an attempt at answering this query. In particular, we investigate two closely related questions. First, we explore whether there is a difference in the output effects of a devaluation during normal periods versus crises ones; after all, during noncrisis periods, real exchange devaluation is seen as an important policy option for promoting exports and output growth. Yet, the literature has not made a distinction between crisis and noncrisis periods. To preview the main conclusion, we find that the contractionary effects tend to exist only during the crisis period. Building on this, we go one to explore the factors that cause a crisis-induced devaluation to be contractionary.

Keywords: Financial crises; Foreign exchange rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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