Working Paper Series

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2025-06: Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities

Schuyler Louie, John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland

2025-05: Why Firms Lay Off Workers Instead of Cutting Wages: Evidence from Linked Survey-Administrative Data

Morten Bennedsen, Antoine Bertheau, Marianna Kudlyak and Birthe Larsen

2025-04: The Bank Lending Channel Is Back

Mark Spiegel

2025-03: German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, Yet Undervalued

Jens Christensen, Sarah Mouabbi and Caroline M. Paulson

2025-02: Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored During a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dmitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Timo Reinelt

2025: Explaining Stagnation in the College Wage Premium

Leila Bengali, Robert Valletta and Cindy Zhao

2024-38: Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe

Michael Bauer, Eric Offner and Glenn Rudebusch

2024-37: Climate Policy and the Long-Run Interest Rate: Insights from a Simple Growth Model

Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried and William Peterman

2024-36: Corporate Green Pledges

Michael Bauer, Daniel Huber, Eric Offner, Marlene Renkel and Ole Wilms

2024-35: The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China

Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, Yuchao Peng and Zhiwei Xu

2024-34: A Simple Measure of Anchoring for Short-Run Expected Inflation in FIRE Models

Peter Jorgensen and Kevin Lansing

2024-33: The Rise of AI Pricing: Trends, Driving Forces, and Implications for Firm Performance

Jonathan Adams, Min Fang, Zheng Liu and Yajie Wang

2024-32: A Currency Premium Puzzle

Tarek Hassan, Thomas Mertens and Jingye Wang

2024-31: News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations

Ryan Chahrour, Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

2024-30: Corporate Debt Maturity Matters for Monetary Policy

Joachim Jungherr, Matthias Meier, Timo Reinelt and Immo Schott

2024-29: Inference for Local Projections

Atsushi Inoue, Oscar Jorda and Guido Kuersteiner

2024-27: Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Min Wei

2024-26: Persistent Effects of the Paycheck Protection Program and the PPPLF on Small Business Lending

Lora Dufresne and Mark Spiegel

2024-24: Local Projections

Oscar Jorda and Alan M. Taylor

2024-23: Industrial Composition of Syndicated Loans and Banks’ Climate Commitments

Galina Hale, Brigid C. Meisenbacher and Fernanda Nechio

2024-22: Phillips Meets Beveridge

Régis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro

2024-20: Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-At-Home Orders

Marianna Kudlyak and Erin Wolcott

2024-19: Macroeconomic Expectations and Cognitive Noise

Yeji Sung

2024-18: A Macro Study of the Unequal Effects of Climate Change

Stephie Fried

2024-17: Understanding the Inequality and Welfare Impacts of Carbon Tax Policies

Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan and William Peterman

2024-16: Reshoring, Automation, and Labor Markets Under Trade Uncertainty

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2024-15: Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States during COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency

Robert Valletta and Mary Yilma

2024-15: Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States during COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency

Robert Valletta and Mary Yilma

2024-14: Are Medicaid and Medicare Patients Treated Equally?

Calvin Ackley, Abe Dunn, Eli Liebman and Adam Shapiro

2024-13: Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy

Jens Christensen and Xin Zhang

2024-13: Quantitative Easing, Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy

Jens Christensen and Xin Zhang

2024-12: Inflation Expectations, Liquidity Premia and Global Spillovers in Japanese Bond Markets

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

2024-11: A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency

Pascal Paul, Mauricio Ulate and Jing Cynthia Wu

2024-10: How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?

Marianna Kudlyak

2024-09: Distribution of Market Power, Endogenous Growth, and Monetary Policy

Yumeng Gu and Sanjay Singh

2024-08: The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds

Jens Christensen and Sarah Mouabbi

2024-06: How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel

Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen and Dmitriy Sergeyev

2024-06: Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility?

Vasco Cúrdia and Fernanda Nechio

2024-05: Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

Anton E. Bobrov, Rupal Kamdar and Mauricio Ulate

2024-04: A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

Luis Ceballos, Jens Christensen and Damian Romero

2024-03: Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment

Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay Singh

2024-02: The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil

Leo Feler, Arthur Mendes, Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen and Steven Pennings

2024-01: Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets

Luis Ceballos, Jens Christensen and Damian Romero

2024: Credit Supply, Prices, and Non-price Mechanisms in the Mortgage Market

John Mondragon

2024: Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era?

Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson

2023-38: Monetary Tightening, Inflation Drivers and Financial Stress

Frédéric Boissay, Fabrice Collard, Cristina Manea and Adam Shapiro

2023-37: Low Risk Sharing with Many Assets

Emile Marin and Sanjay Singh

2023-36: Labor Market Stability and Fertility Decisions

Joan Monras, Eduardo Polo-Muro and Javier Vazquez-Grenno

2023-35: A Financial New Keynesian Model

Thomas Mertens and Tony Zhang

2023-34: The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty

Gara Afonso, Gabriele La Spada, Thomas Mertens and John Williams