Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2025-018: Challenging Demographic Representativeness at State Borders: Implications for Policy Research

Benjamin S. Kay and Albina Khatiwoda

2025-017: CardSim: A Bayesian Simulator for Payment Card Fraud Detection Research

Jeffrey Allen

2025-016: Portfolio Margining Using PCA Latent Factors

Shengwu Du and Travis Nesmith

2025-015: Discount window borrowing and the role of reserves and interest rates

Mark Carlson and Mary-Frances Styczynski

2025-014: The Relationship between Market Depth and Liquidity Fragility in the Treasury Market

Andrew Meldrum and Oleg Sokolinskiy

2025-013: Rewiring repo

Jin-Wook Chang, Elizabeth Klee and Vladimir Yankov

2025-012: Heraclius: A Byzantine Fault Tolerant Database System with Potential for Modern Payments Systems

Jeremy Brotherton, Tarakaram Gollamudi, Jeremy Kassis, James Lovejoy, Narayanan Pillai and Eric C. Thompson

2025-011: Research in Commotion: Measuring AI Research and Development through Conference Call Transcripts

Paul E. Soto

2025-010: Shedding Light on Survey Accuracy—A Comparison between SHED and Census Bureau Survey Results

Kabir Dasgupta, Fatimah Shaalan and Mike Zabek

2025-009: Regulating Bank Portfolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information

Christopher Anderson

2025-008: The effect of ending the pandemic-related mandate of continuous Medicaid coverage on health insurance coverage

Kabir Dasgupta and Keisha T. Solomon

2025-007: Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News

Michele Modugno and Berardino Palazzo

2025-006: Spatially Mapping Banks' Commercial & Industrial Loan Exposures: Including an Application to Climate-Related Risks

Benjamin Dennis, Gurubala Kotta and Caroline Norris

2025-005: Impact of the Volcker Rule on the Trading Revenue of Largest U.S. Trading Firms During the COVID-19 Crisis Period

Hulusi Inanoglu, David Lynch and Zach Modig

2025-004: Nonparametric Time Varying IV-SVARs: Estimation and Inference

Robin Braun, George Kapetanios and Massimiliano Marcellino

2025-003: Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress

Robert Kelchen, Dubravka Ritter and Douglas Webber

2025-002: “Good” Inflation, “Bad” Inflation: Implications for Risky Asset Prices

Diego Bonelli, Berardino Palazzo and Ram S. Yamarthy

2025-001: Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in Linear State-Space Models

Dobrislav Dobrev and Pawel J. Szerszen

2024-100: Trend-Cycle Decomposition and Forecasting Using Bayesian Multivariate Unobserved Components

Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Charles Knipp and Pawel J. Szerszen

2024-099: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap

Matteo Barigozzi, Claudio Lissona and Matteo Luciani

2024-098: Hidden Risk

Daniel Barth, Phillip J. Monin, Emil N. Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

2024-097: Life-Cycle Portfolio Choices and Heterogeneous Stock Market Expectations

Mateo Velásquez-Giraldo

2024-096: A Market Interpretation of Treatment Effects

Robert Minton and Casey Mulligan

2024-095: Measured Inflation and the New-Keynesian Model

Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum and Benjamin K. Johannsen

2024-094: Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Min Wei

2024-093: Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation

Daniel Dias, Christine Richmond and Grant Westfahl

2024-092: Gender Gaps in the Federal Reserve System

Deepa Datta and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2024-091: Measuring Inclusion: Gender and Coauthorship at the Federal Reserve Board

Deepa Datta and Robert Vigfusson

2024-090: Revisiting Risky Money

Travis Nesmith

2024-089: Credit Supply and Hedge Fund Performance: Evidence from Prime Broker Surveys

Dan Li, Phillip J. Monin and Lubomir Petrasek

2024-088: Locked In: Rate Hikes, Housing Markets, and Mobility

Aditya Aladangady, Jacob Krimmel and Tess C. Scharlemann

2024-087: Unemployment Insurance and Macro-Financial (In)Stability

Yavuz Arslan, Ahmet Degerli, Bulent Guler and Burhanettin Kurusçu

2024-086: Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm

Matteo Barigozzi and Matteo Luciani

2024-085: Inside the Boardroom: Evidence from the Board Structure and Meeting Minutes of Community Banks

Rosalind Bennett, Manju Puri and Paul E. Soto

2024-084: Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Hie Joo Ahn and Leland Farmer

2024-083: Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2024-082: More Tax, Less Refi? The Mortgage Interest Deduction and Monetary Policy Pass-Through

Tess C. Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen

2024-081: Nonlinear Effects of Loan-to-Value Constraints

C. Bora Durdu and Sergio Villalvazo

2024-080: Who is Minding the Store? Order Routing and Competition in Retail Trade Execution

Xing Huang, Philippe Jorion, Jeongmin Lee and Christopher Schwarz

2024-079: Social Security and High-Frequency Labor Supply: Evidence from Uber Drivers

Timothy Beatty and Joakim A. Weill

2024-078: The Inflation Accelerator

Andres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

2024-077: Mortgage Design, Repayment Schedules, and Household Borrowing

Claes Bäckman, Patrick Moran and Peter van Santen

2024-076: Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

Andres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

2024-075: Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values

Thomas Cook, Zach Modig and Nathan Palmer

2024-074: High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities

Joonkyu Choi, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger and J. Daniel Kim

2024-073: What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?

Andrew Figura and Christopher Waller

2024-072: Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector

David Glancy and Robert Kurtzman

2024-070: Partial Homeownership: A Quantitative Analysis

Eirik E. Brandsaas and Jens Kvaerner

2024-069: Inframarginal Borrowers and the Mortgage Payment Channel of Monetary Policy

Daniel R. Ringo

2024-068: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Family Economic Well-being: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

Sarena Goodman, Alice Henriques Volz, Gina Li and Kevin B. Moore

2024-067: Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability

Charles Kahn, Ahyan Panjwani and João A. C. Santos

2024-066: Interconnectedness in the Corporate Bond Market

Celso Brunetti, Matthew Carl, Jacob Gerszten, Chiara Scotti and Chaehee Shin

2024-065: Auto Finance in the Electric Vehicle Transition

Elizabeth Klee, Adair Morse and Chaehee Shin

2024-064: 2020 Survey of Finance Companies

Robert M. Adams, Lisa Chen and Michael M. Chernousov

2024-063: Inflation Expectations with Finite Horizon Planning

Christopher Gust, Edward P. Herbst and David Lopez-Salido

2024-062: The Macroeconomic Effects of Excess Savings

Bence Bardóczy, Jae W. Sim and Andreas Tischbirek

2024-061: Quantities and Covered-Interest Parity

Tobias J. Moskowitz, Chase P. Ross, Sharon Y. Ross and Kaushik Vasudevan

2024-060: Spectral backtests unbounded and folded

Michael Gordy and Alexander J. McNeil

2024-059: Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Private Sector Foresight

Christopher Gust and David Lopez-Salido

2024-058: Insurers’ Investments and Insurance Prices

Benjamin Knox and Jakob Ahm Sørensen

2024-057: Balance-Sheet Netting in U.S. Treasury Markets and Central Clearing

David Bowman, Yesol Huh and Sebastian Infante

2024-056: One Month Longer, One Month Later? Prepayments in the Auto Loan Market

Bradley Katcher, Geng Li, Alvaro Mezza and Steve Ramos

2024-055: Targeted Relief: Geography and Timing of Emergency Rental Assistance

Theodore Figinski, Sydney Keenan, Richard James Sweeney and Erin Troland

2024-054: Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time

Michael Kiley

2024-053: What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?

Hassan Afrouzi, Joel P. Flynn and Choongryul Yang

2024-052: HANK Comes of Age

Bence Bardóczy and Mateo Velásquez-Giraldo

2024-051: Optimal Design of Contingent Capital

Lionel Melin and Ahyan Panjwani

2024-050: (Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves

Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy B. Rudd

2024-049: Predicting Analysts’ S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Errors and Stock Market Returns using Macroeconomic Data and Nowcasts

Antonio Gil de Rubio Cruz and Steven A. Sharpe

2024-048: Sexual Orientation and Financial Well-Being in the United States

Christopher Carpenter, Kabir Dasgupta, Zofsha Merchant and Alexander Plum

2024-047: Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

Francisca Sara-Zaror

2024-046: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

2024-045: The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program

David Glancy, Felicia Ionescu, Elizabeth Klee, Antonis Kotidis, Michael Siemer and Andrei Zlate

2024-044: Trademarks in Banking

Ryuichiro Izumi, Antonis Kotidis and Paul E. Soto

2024-043: The Slope of the Phillips Curve

Francesco Furlanetto and Antoine Lepetit

2024-042: Demand Uncertainty, Selection, and Trade

Erick Sager and Olga Timoshenko

2024-041: Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability

David Lopez-Salido, Emily J. Markowitz and Edward Nelson

2024-040: Information Friction in OTC Interdealer Markets

Benjamin Gardner and Yesol Huh

2024-039: Reaching for Duration and Leverage in the Treasury Market

Daniel Barth, Robert Kahn, Phillip J. Monin and Oleg Sokolinskiy

2024-038: Income Shocks and Their Transmission into Consumption

Edmund Crawley and Alexandros Theloudis

2024-037: Factor Selection and Structural Breaks

Siddhartha Chib and Simon C. Smith

2024-036: Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Damjan Pfajfar and Fabian Winkler

2024-035: Central Banking Post Crises

Michael Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin

2024-034: Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures

Miguel Acosta, Connor M. Brennan and Margaret Jacobson

2024-033: Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market

Michael Kiley

2024-032: Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Michael Kiley

2024-031: Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?

Agostino Capponi, Chuan Du and Joseph Stiglitz

2024-030: Evaluating the Effects of Geographic Adjustments on Poverty Measures Using Self-Reported Financial Well-Being Scores

Jeff Larrimore

2024-029: Personal Tax Changes and Financial Well-being: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Christine L. Dobridge, Joanne Hsu and Mike Zabek

2024-028: Tale About Inflation Tails

Olesya Grishchenko and Laura Wilcox

2024-027: Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates

Christopher Gust and Arsenios Skaperdas

2024-026: Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis

Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Christopher J. Kurz, Norman J. Morin, Paul E. Soto and Betsy Vrankovich

2024-025: Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions Under Lender Scrutiny

Buhui Qiu and Teng Wang

2024-024: Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

Ege Aksu, Sidhya Balakrishnan, Eric Bettinger, Jonathan S. Hartley, Michael Kofoed, Dubravka Ritter and Douglas Webber

2024-023: Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Kate Bachtell, Andrew C. Chang, Joanne Hsu, Eva Ma and Micah Sjoblom

2024-022r1: Assessing the Common Ownership Hypothesis in the US Banking Industry

Jacob P. Gramlich and Serafin J. Grundl

2024-021: Financial Stability Implications of CBDC

Francesca Carapella, Jin-Wook Chang, Sebastian Infante, Melissa Leistra, Arazi Lubis and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2024-020: Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation

Leland Crane, Emily Green, Molly Harnish, Will McClennan, Paul E. Soto, Betsy Vrankovich and Jacob Williams

2024-019: Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages

Simon Firestone, Nathan Y. Godin, Akos Horvath and Jacob Sagi

2024-018: Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data

Ben Ost, Weixiang Pan and Douglas Webber