A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes: U.S. Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico

Chris A. Avalos, Musa Orak and Avani Pradhan
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Musa Orak: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/musa-orak.htm

No 2026-11-09-4, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: The 2025 U.S. tariff increases were followed by sharply different export outcomes in Canada and Mexico. Comparing the 12 months ending in April 2026 with calendar year 2024, Canadian goods exports to the United States fell about 10 percent, while Mexican exports rose about 16 percent, even though Mexico faced a higher average tariff exposure (figure 1). Do these contrasting outcomes mean that tariffs mattered for Canada but had little effect on Mexico, even though both economies depend heavily on the U.S. market?

Date: 2026-11-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:104042

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.4196

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