Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium
Giovanni Favara (),
Simon Gilchrist (),
Kurt Lewis () and
Egon Zakrajsek ()
FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Corporate bond spreads and the slope of the Treasury yield curve (that is, the term spread) are two financial indicators that are especially informative about the likelihood of an economic downturn over a medium-term horizon.
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