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Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?

Andrea Raffo (), Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello
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Dario Caldara: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Matteo Iacoviello: Narodowy Bank Polski

No 2019-09-04, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: In this note, we first document the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty, henceforth TPU, by using two complementary measures based on text-search analysis: one focusing on newspapers articles, and another constructed from transcripts of firms' earning calls. We then use econometric evidence on the joint movements in aggregate TPU, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables in order to provide an estimate of the effects of the recent spikes in TPU on U.S. GDP, as well as GDP in advanced foreign economies (AFEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs).

Date: 2019-09-04
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DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2445

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