Unpredictable Recessions

David Miller

No 2021-07-02-1, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: This note shows forward term spreads provide little information about recessions more than a couple years ahead. In fact, forward term spreads are essentially equivalent to today's term spreads in their ability to accurately predict further-ahead recessions.

Date: 2021-07-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-07-02-1

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2936

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