Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time

Robert Minton and Mariano A. Somale
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Robert Minton: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/robert-j-minton.htm
Mariano A. Somale: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/mariano-a-somale.htm

No 2025-05-09, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Economic researchers and forecasters face the difficult task of differentiating the effects of tariffs on consumer prices from the effects of other factorsâ such as inflation expectations, supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and energy pricesâ which may influence prices independently. The methods available for this task in the economics literature, however, are not suitable for assessing tariffs' effects on consumer prices in real time. Most studies in the literature analyze effects on goods prices at the port of entry (import prices1) and, in some cases, on domestic producer prices. The few studies that assess tariff effects on consumer prices typically focus on a subset of consumer goods or rely on data that are not publicly available in real time.2

Date: 2025-05-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-05-09

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3786

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