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Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions: The Role of CDS Spreads

Sirio Aramonte, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar (), Samuel Rosen and John W. Schindler

No 1212, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: We propose a method to extract individual firms' risk-neutral return distributions by combining options and credit default swaps (CDS). Options provide information about the central part of the distribution, and CDS anchor the left tail. Jointly, options and CDS span the intermediate part of the distribution, which is driven by moderate-sized jump risk. We study the returns on a trading strategy that buys (sells) stocks exposed to positive (negative) moderate-sized jump risk unspanned by options or CDS individually. Controlling for many known factors, this strategy earns a 0.5% premium per month, highlighting the economic value of combining options and CDS.

Keywords: Risk neutral distributions; CDS spreads; Cross-section of expected returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G13 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
Date: 2017-08-31
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DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1212

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