EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Olivier Blanchard (), Christopher Collins (), Mohammad Jahan-Parvar (), Thomas Pellet and Beth Anne Wilson

No 1235, International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual and expected dividends. A general improvement in economic activity and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty around the world were the main factors behind the stock market increase. The prospect and the eventual passage of the corporate tax bill nevertheless played a role. And while part of the rise in stock returns came from a decrease in the equity risk premium, this decrease was relatively limited and returned the premium to the levels of the first half of the 2000s.

Keywords: Dividends; Earnings; Equity returns; Equity premium; Gordon formula; Tax reform; U.S. presidential election (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-08-21
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1235.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election? (2018) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgif:1235

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2018.1235

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in International Finance Discussion Papers from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ryan Wolfslayer ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-12
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1235